Serious Baseball: The Red Sox - Indians Trade

Finally, after what seemed to be about seven years of anticipation the Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Indians completed their six player deal that sent Coco Crisp, Josh Bard and David Riske to Boston in exchange for mega-prospect Andy Marte, Kelly Shoppach, Guillermo Mota, cash and a player to be named later.

Now that we’ve had a while to think about the trade let’s take some time to figure out exactly who got the better end of this deal.

Since there are many players involved in this deal, the statistics section is going to be on the long side, so please bear with me. Here are the involved players relevant statistics and salary information:

Red Sox Receive:

Coco Crisp (26 year old RH Center Fielder, made $364,900 in 2005, due for arbitration through 2009)

2005: 594 AB, .300/.345/.465, 15 HR, 69 RBI, 86 Runs, 15/6 SB/CS (70.4%), 6.9 WARP3, 103 Rate2 in 138 Games in LF, 90 Rate2 in 10 games in CF

Career: 1626 AB, .287/.332/.424, 35 HR, 176 RBI, 235 Runs, 54/29 SB/CS (65.1%), 14.1 WARP3, 106 Rate2 in 216 game in LF, 94 Rate2 in 188 games in CF

David Riske (29 year old RH Reliever, made $1.43 million in 2005, will make $1.8 million in 2006)

2005: 58 G, 3-4, 1 SV, 72.7 IP, 3.10 ERA, 6.8 H/9—1.4 HR/9—1.9 BB/9—5.9 K/9

Career: 287 G, 17-12, 16 SV, 317.3 IP, 3.55 ERA, 7.5 H/9—1.3 HR/9—3.8 BB/9—9.0 K/9

Josh Bard (soon-to-be 28 year old RH Catcher, made $317,900 in 2005, unknown salary for 2006)

2005: 83 AB, .193/.266/.277, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 6 Runs, 0.6 WARP3, 105 Rate2 in 31 games at Catcher

Career: 495 AB, .238/.289/.370, 13 HR, 61 RBI, 45 Runs, 4.8 WARP3, 107 Rate2 in 149 games at Catcher

Minor League Career: 1015 AB, .286/.344/.410, 19 HR, 131 RBI, 127 Runs

Indians Receive:

Andy Marte (22 year old RH 3^rd baseman with only 57 AB’s of Major League Experience, unknown salary for 2006):

2005 (AAA Richmond): 389 AB, .275/.372/.506, 20 HR, 74 RBI, 51 Runs

Minor League Career: 1867 AB, .274/.360/.485, 82 HR, 382 RBI, 257 Runs Scored

Guillermo Mota (32 year old RH Relief Pitcher, 2005 Salary of $2.6 million, will make $3 million in 2006):
2005: 67.0 IP, 2-2, 4.70 IP, 8.7 H/9—0.7 HR/9—4.3 BB/9--8.1 K/9
Career: 464.3 IP, 22-24, 3.61 ERA, 7.7 H/9--0.8 HR/9--3.4 BB/9--7.3 K/9

Kelly Shoppach (soon-to-be 26 year old RH Catcher with only 15 AB’s of Major League experience, unknown salary for 2006)

2005 (AAA Pawtucket): 371 AB, .253/.352/.507, 26 HR, 75 RBI, 60 Runs

Minor League Career: 1524 AB, .259/.349/.470, 70 HR, 265 RBI, 221 Runs

Player To Be Named Later added if Mota spends any time on the DL, and Cash (believed to be $1 million)

You know the Red Sox were in desperate need of a center fielder when you take a look at the package they gave to the Indians for Crisp; the centerpiece of the deal.

The two prospects the Red Sox gave up here are both very good, and there really isn’t much more to say about it. I really don’t have to get into this that much because you can look at the numbers above yourself.

So I will not mention the fact that both Shoppach and Marte have shown spectacular power and patience in their careers, because you can see that for yourself. By the way, power and patience are the two elements of a player’s game that last the longest.

What isn’t posted above though is fielding statistics for Shoppach and Marte. This is because I have been unable to find any minor league fielding metrics not named “Fielding Percentage.” Because of this I am forced to go by scouting reports. And here is Kelly Shoppach’s scouting report on SoxProspects.com:

“Top-line defensive catcher - great arm and great glove.  Hits the ball to all fields and draws a lot of walks. Has excellent power for a catcher, and Boston also loves his OBP. Strikes out a lot, and has below average speed. A natural leader”

The first line of that report is the one we are concerned with here, the one about Shoppach being a “Top-Line” defender. This means that Shoppach is one of those rare players I speak so highly of that can give a team very good defense at a defense-first position (C, SS, 2B, or CF), and above average offense. It is players like that are so hard to find that give teams huge advantages over their competition. And this is the player the Red Sox gave up, just as Jason Varitek (their present catcher) is hitting that age where catchers start to dwindle.

Believe it or not though, Shoppach wasn’t the best player the Indians got in this deal. That title goes to Andy Marte. You know, the player that was named Baseball Prospectus’s number one prospect in all of baseball before 2005, and didn’t disappoint that title last season.

Now even though third base isn’t a defense-first position like catcher, take a look at what Marte’s scouting report says about his defense (SoxProspects.com):

“Blue chip third base prospect with all-star potential. Excellent power (40 HR potential), drives the ball well to all fields. Above average fielder. Great plate discipline. Below average speed on the base paths.”

That’s right, so on top of being an excellent offensive player, Marte is also an “Above Average Fielder.” Oh yeah, and he’s only 22!

Lastly, the Indians also get Guillermo Mota who is a good pitcher, but he’s not one that will sway this trade in either direction.

Oh wait, the Indians also get cash and a possible player to be named later from the Red Sox.

Now I know it sounds like I am being biased and have already chosen the Indians as the winners of this deal, but that is not true. That’s not how we are here at “Serious Baseball.” We do the research, and give our best-educated opinion. So with that in mind, let’s take a look at what players the Red Sox got back for the great package they gave up.

The centerpiece of this deal, and the main reason the Red Sox made this trade was Coco Crisp. The Red Sox decided they needed him to fill the role that Johnny Damon used to fill: A center fielder and lead off hitter. Can Crisp do this?

Well, even though he has only played 188 games in center field thus far in his career, he hasn’t shown any ability to field that position well (see stats above). Since the sample is so small though, we won’t hold it against Crisp. But we can say that it’s not like the Red Sox are getting the second coming of Jim Edmonds or anything like that.

As far as leading off goes, Crisp isn’t a great candidate to do this. While he hasn’t shown very good ability to get on base yet at the major league level (Career OBP of only .332, and a .345 OBP in 2005), he did show better patience at the plate in the minors (0.75 IPD) and had a .374 career OBP there. Even so, Crisp is still a better number two hole hitter than a lead off candidate, check out his career numbers in both slots:

Batting #1: 716 AB, .270/.312/.373

Batting #2: 523 AB, .312/.357/.480

The point is that at a defense-first position like CF, the Red Sox got somebody who isn’t that great defensively. And to fill their lead off role, they got a player whose career OBP in that slot is .312, and overall has a .332 OBP for his career. To be blunt, Crisp isn’t a great option to fill either role that he will play.

Did the other involved players make the deal worth it for the Red Sox though (Riske, and Bard)?

No.

While Riske is a good pitcher, Bard is not even close to good offensively and wasn’t that good in the minors (see stats above). These two players do not make this deal remotely even.

Lastly, let’s look at the money side of the deal.

Crisp has asked the Red Sox for a $3.05 million salary in 2006 through arbitration while the Red Sox have offered $2.35 million. Since Crisp performed so well last season, we’re going to go with the $3.05 million figure as his 2006 salary since his performance does warrant that number. Riske will make $1.8 million, and for Bard we’ll use a figure of $330,000 as his 2006 salary.

I make this estimation of Bard’s salary based on the fact that he made a little more than the league minimum in 2005 ($316,000), and will probably warrant the same type of salary in 2006, which I put a little bit higher than the new league minimum ($327,000).

In total, the Red Sox have added $5.18 million to their payroll in player salaries, but we must also include the $1 million they are sending Cleveland as well. In total they added $6.18 million to their payroll ($3.05 + $1.8 + $.33 + $1 million).

The Indians get two minor league contracts with Shoppach and Marte. If both of them do get paid a major league salary in 2006 it won’t be any higher than the minimum ($327,000 – total of $654,000). We must also remember they only have to play $2 million of Guillermo Mota’s salary since the Red Sox are sending $1 million to them as well.

The final numbers show the Indians saving $2.526 million ($5.18 million in player salaries to the Red Sox minus $2.654 million due to Shoppach, Marte, and Mota as Indians), and the Red Sox adding $2.526 million to their payroll ($5.18 million in player salaries plus $1 million sent to Cleveland minus $3.654 due to Mota, Shoppach, and Marte if they had stayed on Red Sox).

The Red Sox got ripped off here, and they got ripped off bad. While Crisp is a young, exciting, up-and-coming player that I am looking forward to watching as a Red Sox fan, the package given up for him was way, way, way too much. Also, the Red Sox added to their payroll as well.

Shoppach is too much of an asset to any team because of his defense behind the plate; especially one with an aging catcher like Jason Varitek, and Marte is just too good.

As a Red Sox fan the only thing you can be happy with about this trade is that now you actually have a center fielder, and he is a good player that should be able to get close to the production Johnny Damon used to give you.

Yes, the Red Sox filled a hole that needed to be filled, but the price was far too high.

Congratulation to Indians General Manager Mark Shapiro for exploiting the Red Sox’s situation by seeing that they needed a center fielder, knowing you had one to give up, and getting everything you could out of them.

Thank you for reading. If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.