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Serious
Baseball: The Milwaukee Brewers - Part 2: Pitching - Revised
by Frank
Bundy III
February 12, 2006
(It was while I was writing my St. Louis Cardinals
article and projecting their pitcher’s 2006 seasons that I
figured out that the projections I made for the Milwaukee Brewers
pitchers in 2006, were much too harsh.
I was quite pleased with my work in writing the piece on the Cardinals,
largely because I used career dERAs instead of 2005 dERAs (as I
did with Brewer pitchers) as the basis for the projections of Cardinal
pitchers. This resulted in the realization that some pitchers do
consistently out pitch their dERAs over the course of their careers.
I don’t know what it is that makes a pitcher able to do this,
but if he’s been doing it his entire career, who am I to predict
a stoppage of this trend?
This led me to much more stable projections, and put a so-called
“governor” on my over-projecting of pitchers that had
a low actual ERA and high dERA in 2005.
After completing the Cardinals article I got to work on re-doing
my projections for the 2006 Brewers pitching staff. After figuring
each of the pitchers career dERA along with their 2005 one, I toned
down many of my projections because many of the Brewers pitchers
have shown a tendency to “out pitch” their defense.
Overall, this led to a lot of better-projected ERA’s. And,
therefore led to a better 2006 W-L record for the Brewers. With
that said, here is the revised copy of the article with the new
projections included, and the new predicted W-L record.)
We already figured out that the Milwaukee Brewers will be fielding
a worse offense in 2006 than they did in 2005, making the chances
of them improving upon their 2005 W-L record (81-81) minute. If
the Brewers are going to improve on that record, they’re definitely
going to have to improve their pitching and defense to make up for
their regression in offense.
Before we get into any pitching projections though, we must take
a look at the Brewers defense because of the obvious effect that
it has on the pitching staff.
Defense is a very hard facet of the game to project so in order
to do this I am just going to use the Brewers 2005 performance (9th
in the NL in Defensive efficiency) as a guideline, and look at the
new defenders they have added.
The Brewers only have two new defenders on the 2006 team: Prince
Fielder at 1B replacing Lyle Overbay, and Corey Koskie replacing
the platoon of defenders the Brewers used at third base last season.
Fielder’s defense is noted to be a “work in progress”
in one scouting report, and when you consider that he is taking
over for Overbay who was a spectacular defender (115 Rate2), it
is impossible to say that the Brewers are getting better at first
base defensively. They are definitely getting much worse.
The platoon of players the Brewers used at third base last season
(Bill Hall, Jeff Cirillo, Russell Branyan, and Wes Helms) combined
to be slightly below average defensively last season (98 Rate2),
and Koskie will be a definite upgrade at the hot corner. His career
Rate2 at third base is 107, and he will be a huge asset there defensively.
After taking into consideration these new additions, it looks like
the Brewers defense will remain close to the same in 2006 with Koskie’s
good glove cancelled out by Fielder’s not-so-good glove. Even
if some of the youngsters on the team improve defensively, it looks
like the Brewers defense again won’t be an asset in 2006. This
will obviously impact the pitching staff in a negative way, and
this will be reflected in all pitchers 2006 projections.
Now, to the pitching staff. To start, let’s take a look at
a chart listing each pitcher that pitched for the 2005 Brewers,
and their respective statistics:
|
name
|
G
|
GS
|
IP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
ERA
|
H/9
|
HR/9
|
BB/9
|
K/9
|
| ChrisCapuano |
35
|
35
|
219
|
18
|
12
|
0
|
3.99
|
8.7
|
1.3
|
3.7
|
7.2
|
| DougDavis |
35
|
35
|
222.7
|
11
|
11
|
0
|
3.84
|
7.9
|
1.1
|
3.8
|
8.4
|
| VictorSantos |
29
|
24
|
141.7
|
4
|
13
|
0
|
4.57
|
9.7
|
1.3
|
3.8
|
5.7
|
| BenSheets |
22
|
22
|
156.7
|
10
|
9
|
0
|
3.33
|
8.2
|
1.1
|
1.4
|
8.1
|
| TomoOhka |
22
|
20
|
126.3
|
7
|
6
|
0
|
4.35
|
10
|
1.1
|
2
|
5.8
|
| GaryGlover |
15
|
11
|
64.7
|
5
|
4
|
0
|
5.57
|
10
|
1.4
|
2.8
|
8.1
|
| WesObermueller |
23
|
8
|
65
|
1
|
4
|
0
|
5.26
|
10
|
1
|
5
|
4.6
|
| RickHelling |
15
|
7
|
49
|
3
|
1
|
0
|
2.39
|
7.2
|
0.4
|
3.3
|
7.7
|
| MikeAdams |
13
|
0
|
13.3
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
2.7
|
8.1
|
1.3
|
6.8
|
9.5
|
| RickyBottalico |
40
|
0
|
41.7
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
4.54
|
9.3
|
1.5
|
4.1
|
6.3
|
| JoseCapellan |
17
|
0
|
15.7
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
2.87
|
9.8
|
0.6
|
2.9
|
8
|
| KaneDavis |
15
|
0
|
16.7
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
2.7
|
5.4
|
1.1
|
5.4
|
5.9
|
| Jorgede la Rosa |
38
|
0
|
42.3
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
4.46
|
10
|
0.2
|
8.1
|
8.9
|
| DanaEveland |
27
|
0
|
31.7
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
5.97
|
11
|
0.6
|
5.1
|
6.5
|
| JustinLehr |
23
|
0
|
34.7
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
3.89
|
8.3
|
1
|
4.7
|
6
|
| TommyPhelps |
29
|
0
|
23.3
|
0
|
2
|
1
|
4.63
|
9.6
|
0.8
|
4.6
|
5.4
|
| JulioSantana |
41
|
0
|
42
|
3
|
5
|
1
|
4.5
|
7.3
|
1.3
|
4.1
|
11
|
| DerrickTurnbow |
69
|
0
|
67.3
|
7
|
1
|
39
|
1.74
|
6.5
|
0.7
|
3.2
|
8.6
|
| MattWise |
49
|
0
|
64.3
|
4
|
4
|
1
|
3.36
|
5.2
|
0.8
|
3.5
|
8.7
|
Now, let’s take a look at the pitchers the Brewers have listed
on their official depth chart for the 2006 season:
| Starters |
Relievers |
| Ben Sheets |
Jose Capellan |
| Chris Capuano |
Kane Davis |
| Doug Davis |
Jorge De La Rosa |
| Tomo Ohka |
Dana Eveland |
| David Bush |
Justin Lehr |
| Rick Helling |
Derrick Turnbow |
| |
Matt Wise |
| |
Dan Kolb |
As you can see, there are many players that pitched on the 2005 team
that are no longer with the team in 2006. These players will be replaced
with more innings from pitchers like Jose Capellan, Kane Davis, Ben
Sheets, and a full season from Tomo Ohka, who was acquired partially
through the 2005 season. In the end, there are only two new faces
to the Brewers staff: 26 year old starter David Bush, acquired from
Toronto in the Lyle Overbay deal, and 30 year old reliever Dan Kolb,
acquired from the Atlanta Braves for Wes Obermueller.
Since each pitcher on this team isn’t just replacing another
one off the 2005 roster, it would be wrong to just compare one to
another. So to make this projection fair, I am going to project the
starters and bullpen as a whole to one another. While I will list
a projection for each player, the ultimate decision as to whether
to 2006 staff will be better than the 2005 one will be decided by
a team pitching projection, not the individual ones.
To save time and space, I will only list each pitchers projected ERA,
ER, and IP. I will also list their 2005 ERA and IP and the entire
2005 staff’s numbers as well for comparison’s sake.
|
SP
|
IP
|
ER
|
2006 ERA
|
2005 ERA (IP)
|
|
RP
|
IP
|
ER
|
2006 ERA
|
2005 ERA (IP)
|
|
Ben Sheets
|
223.3
|
88
|
3.56
|
3.33 (156.7)
|
|
Jose Capellan
|
56.3
|
28
|
4.48
|
2.87 (15.7)
|
|
Chris Capuano
|
186.7
|
90
|
4.34
|
3.99 (219.0)
|
|
Kane Davis
|
36.3
|
19
|
4.71
|
2.70 (16.7)
|
|
Doug Davis
|
192.3
|
90
|
4.21
|
3.84 (222.7)
|
|
Jorge De La Rosa
|
45.7
|
21
|
4.14
|
4.46 (42.3)
|
|
Tomo Ohka
|
180.3
|
87
|
4.34
|
4.04 (180.3)
|
|
Dana Eveland
|
47.7
|
22
|
4.15
|
5.97 (31.7)
|
|
David Bush
|
168.7
|
81
|
4.32
|
4.49 (136.3)
|
|
Justin Lehr
|
65.7
|
32
|
4.38
|
3.89 (34.7)
|
|
Rick Helling
|
50.3
|
26
|
4.65
|
2.18 (41.3)
|
|
Derrick Turnbow
|
64.7
|
22
|
3.06
|
1.74 (67.3)
|
|
2006 Starters
|
1000.6
|
462
|
4.16
|
|
|
Matt Wise
|
66.3
|
28
|
3.80
|
3.36 (64.3)
|
|
2005 Starters
|
991.7
|
443
|
4.02
|
|
|
Dan Kolb
|
54.7
|
24
|
3.95
|
5.93 (57.7)
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Rick Helling
|
25.0
|
13
|
4.68
|
3.52 (8.7)
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
2006 Bullpen
|
462.4
|
209
|
4.04
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
2005 Bullpen
|
446.3
|
192
|
3.87
|
|
The Brewers 2006 pitching staff will be worse than the 2005 version.
Fr those of you new to reading my articles, when I make projections
on pitchers they are highly based on the D.I.P.S. (Defense Independent
Pitching Statistics) theory that says once a batter hits a ball, there
is nothing a pitcher can do to stop it from becoming a hit. The fate
of the batted ball is in the hands of the defense. Due to this just
looking at a pitcher’s actual ERA isn’t very indicative
of how he actually performed because the defense plays such a large
role in determining this number.
To find out how a pitcher really performed Voros McCracken invented
this DIPS theory, and also invented dERA (Defense-independent ERA).
A pitcher’s dERA is a number calculated on the same scale as
actual ERA, but it is figured as if every pitcher has an exactly league
average defense behind him. It has more to do with numbers a pitcher
posts that have nothing to do with the defense behind him like strikeouts,
base on balls, and home runs allowed.
When you see a pitcher that had a lower ERA than his dERA chances
are he pitched behind a very good defense, or was just plain lucky.
The complete opposite is also true.
The principles behind this theory are the basis for my projections.
I also take into consideration the BABIP against the pitcher.
Anyways, now we know that the Brewers pitching will be worse in 2006,
their defense will be the same, and their offense will be worse, what
will the Brewers W-L record be in 2006?
75-87
Sorry Brewer fans, I was hoping they’d improve over last year
as well.
Thank you for reading. If you have any questions,
comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email
me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.
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