Serious Baseball: "King" Felix Hernandez

OK, you and I both know there really isn’t much to say about the 19-year phenom named Felix Hernandez that hasn’t already been said. If I told you that he’s amazing, I’m sure you’ve already heard that. If I told you that he was the first 19 year old to dominate the league the way he did since the Dwight Gooden did so in the mid-eighties, I’m sure you’d have already heard that as well.

So I’m not here to sing Hernandez’s praises, they’ve already been sung enough. I’m just here to make a projection on his 2006 season.

Can Hernandez dominate throughout an entire season like he did for a little under two months in 2005? To refresh you memory as to just how great “King” Felix was last year in the little time he played, here are the hard numbers:

12 GS, 4-4, 84.3 IP, 2.67 ERA, 6.5 H/9—0.5 HR/9—2.5 BB/9—8.2 K/9

In order to make any projection on 2006 though, we’re going to have to look at the type of pitcher Hernandez was before those brief two months, in the minor leagues:

Year	Age	Team	Level	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9
2003	17	Wisconsin	A	2	0-0	14.0	1.93	5.8	0.6	1.9	11.6
2003	17	Everett	A	7	7-2	55.0	2.29	7.0	0.3	3.9	12.0
2004	18	Inland Empire	A	15	9-3	92.0	2.74	8.3	0.5	2.5	11.2
2004	18	San Antonio	AA	10	5-1	57.3	3.30	7.4	0.5	3.3	9.1
2005	19	Tacoma	AAA	14	9-4	88.0	2.25	6.3	0.3	4.9	10.2
----	---	Min. Lg. Car.	----	48	30-10	306.3	2.59	7.2	0.4	3.6	10.7

OK, all these number are just great. Only one number sticks out and that is the 4.9 BB/9 Hernandez gave up in Tacoma. But, that obviously didn’t turn out to be much of a problem because when the “King” was called up to the big leagues he only walked 2.5 batters per nine innings.

Now I’m not going to lie folks, by making a projection on a 19 year old that has shown this much potential I’m pretty much playing a game that can’t be won. But here goes…

First I have to look at Hernandez’s defense-independent statistics. We will start doing this by looking at Hernandez’s K-rate. To get a better read on how he is progressing in this category, here is a chart showing his progression as he has moved through the Seattle organization:


The trend is there to see folks. As he has gone up to higher levels, his K-Rate has dropped, and it wouldn’t be stupid to expect anything less in 2006 when he faces a full season of big-league hitters for the first time. Look for a K-rate around 7.5 in 2006. Which is still above average.

Now to look at how many walks Hernandez allows. Here is his progression chart in this area of the game:



Besides his 84.3 IP for the Mariners last season, Hernandez’s trend in this category was getting worse as he moved upward; just like his strikeout numbers. In 2006 Hernandez won’t just have to pitch 84.3 innings though, he will have to pitch a full season, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him revert to the form he was in while pitching for Tacoma early last season. This would actually make him worse than average as far as his BB/9 numbers go. Look for Hernandez to walk around 4.5 batters per nine innings in 2006.

And finally, to finish off my analysis of Hernandez’s defense-independent pitching statistics we must look at how many home runs the “King” allows. Here is a look at his progression chart in this category:



Quite simply, Hernandez is too good at not giving up taters to actually get significantly worse in this facet of the game. In the end he will not give up more than one HR per nine innings. Expect a HR-rate around 0.7 next season from the “King.”

Now that we’ve figured out how Hernandez will perform in the defensive-independent facets of pitching we can make a very educated guess as to what type of ERA he will have in 2006. With that said, in his first full season facing big league pitching Felix Hernandez will have a season that looks like so (based on 175+ IP):

3.60 ERA, 8.0 H/9—0.7 HR/9—4.5 BB/9—7.5 K/9

Walking more batters than he did in 2005, while striking out less, and the fact that sustaining the dominance he did in such a short period last season will be much more difficult throughout an entire season, will all lead to an ERA that is almost a full run higher in 2006.

Like I said at the beginning of the article, by projecting a season for 19-year old with this much potential I’m playing a game that is very hard to win. But that’s what I’m here to do, and I’m giving it my best effort.

Look forward to me making fun of myself throughout the 2006 season with lines like, “Remember, it really isn’t that smart to listen to me because I’m the same guy who predicted Felix Hernandez would have this season…”

Thank you for reading. If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.