Serious Baseball: Jose Reyes: Superstar?

Why does everybody constantly call Jose Reyes a superstar? Reyes did steal 60 bases last season, but does that really make a superstar? My gut reaction is that he would still have to be a good hitter for those sixty steals to have much significance, but his minor and major league history has thus far not shown any indication of that needed element.

Take a look back at Reyes’s minor league career before his initial call-up in 2003. You have to wonder why he was called up to the Big Club so soon. What was the rush?

Team	Year	Age	Level	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	SB%	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kingston	2000	17	R	49	132	22	33	3	3	0	8	10	4	71%	20	37	0.250	0.359	0.318	0.677
St. Lucie	2002	19	A	69	288	58	83	10	11	6	38	31	13	70%	30	35	0.288	0.353	0.462	0.815
Binghamton	2002	19	AA	65	275	46	79	16	8	2	24	27	11	71%	16	42	0.287	0.331	0.425	0.756
Norfolk	2003	20	AAA	42	160	28	43	6	4	0	13	26	5	84%	15	25	0.269	0.333	0.356	0.689

Does anybody else see that downward trend in OPS, and every other rate category, starting at the Single-A level and progressing from each level on? This trend doesn’t exactly scream, “Bring this player to the Big Club.” During that tenure in the minor leagues, Reyes wasn’t even much of a fielder as far as I can tell. While scouting reports say that he has the natural athleticism to be one of the premier shortstops in the game, the experts agree he was raw even for his age.

After the Mets called Reyes up in 2003 he battled major league pitching to at least a draw, posting a .307/.334/.434 (.768 OPS) batting line in 274 AB’s with 5 HR, and 13 SB’s in 16 attempts. Usually, players that hit this well against major leaguers at the age of 20 are destined for all star appearances and a good many of them end up in Cooperstown, but in 2004 he didn’t really follow his rookie season too well and posted a disgusting .644 OPS while hitting 0 HR, and stealing only 3 SB’s in a season shortened by a hamstring injury. By the way, it’s worth pointing out that Reyes’ injury was at least somewhat predictable. His minor league career had already hit one speed bump when he missed his entire age-18 season do to leg problems, and those same leg problems shorted his major league debut in 2003 as well.

After that 2004 season it looked like the perfect time for the Mets to bite the bullet and admit that they made a mistake by bringing Reyes up too quickly and send him back down to fine tune his hitting and his footwork (his injuries are at least in part due to some spectacularly ineffective footwork on defense that also leads to errant throws and limited range). They chose not to do this. Instead they let Reyes start the 2005 season at shortstop, and he played a full season. Besides the 60 stolen bases and 17 triples he legged out, he did not have a good season at all:

Team	Year	Age	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	SB%	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
New York (N)	2005	22	161	696	99	190	24	17	7	58	60	15	80%	27	78	0.273	0.300	0.386	0.686

Every metric from Zone Rating to Rate2 to Dave Pinto’s probabilistic model of range suggests that Reyes was a barely marginal defensive middle infielder as well, so it’s not his defense keeping him in the line-up.

So now that I’ve presented the data, I want to know why this kid is a superstar. Can anybody tell me? Since I am so critical of the youngster, I think it’s only fair that I do a projection of his 2006 season.

Let’s start by looking at his minor and major league numbers again, but this time with my favorite predictive metrics included (Isolated Plate Discipline, Isolated Power, and BABIP).

Minor League Career:

AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS	SB%	IPD	ISOP	BABIP
896	0.275	0.338	0.401	0.739	99	34	74%	0.063	0.126	0.321

Major League Career:

yearID	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS	SB%	IPD	ISOP	BABIP
2003	274	0.307	0.334	0.434	0.768	13	3	81%	0.027	0.127	0.339
2004	220	0.255	0.271	0.373	0.644	19	2	90%	0.016	0.118	0.289
2005	696	0.273	0.300	0.386	0.686	60	15	80%	0.027	0.113	0.300
	1190	0.277	0.303	0.395	0.698	92	20	82%	0.026	0.118	0.306

What happened to the patience that Reyes once had in the minor leagues? While his IPD wasn’t great as a minor leaguer, he at least showed the potential to be major league average in that area. This loss defies explanation, aside from the conclusion that Reyes isn’t relaxing now that he’s on the big stage. He must be hurrying his approach and swinging at bad pitches much more than he did in the minors. Including his minor league IPD, here is his progression chart in this category:

[Reyes' IPD]

Based on Reyes’s age (22), the start of an upward trend in this category, and the belief that he must have some patience because he had it in the minor leagues, I will be projecting Reyes to have improved patience at the plate in 2006. Next season, Reyes’s IPD will be .038. While this projection indicates a small improvement, Reyes has shown enough patience in the past that he could surprise people and suddenly double his IPD in 2006.

Now we’ll look at Reyes’s power numbers, most notably his ISOP. Reyes is a rare player who derives most of his slugging percentage from his speed. He legs out a great many triples that would be doubles for most players. It should be noted that Reyes led all of Major League Baseball in triples in 2006. When I say we are looking at Reyes’s power numbers, I am not necessarily looking at his HR power. I am looking at his ability to take extra bases because of his speed. Anyhow, here is progression chart in this category:

[Reyes' ISOP]

The trend here is clear to see. Reyes definitely isn’t getting any better at generating power in his own unique way of stretching singles into doubles, and doubles into triples. If Reyes were a more common player (one without exceptional speed), I’d say that based on his minor league ISOP and his age he’d have to rebound. Since he’s not hitting HR’s for his power though, it is reasonable to predict a 2006 ISOP that will be around the same level. This is because fielders can adjust to those line drives in the gap that Reyes has been stretching into extra base hits. They couldn’t do this if he was hitting HR’s. In 2006, Reyes’s ISOP will be .114.

As a speedster Reyes has an edge when it comes to his BABIP numbers. When he makes bad contact and hits a slow roller to the infield, he has a chance to beat it out for an infield hit. This is impossible for most other players. Yet, even with this advantage, Reyes’s major league BABIP has only been slightly above average when it should be much higher. Two players similar to Reyes, Ichiro Suzuki and Carl Crawford, have been using their speed much better throughout their careers. Suzuki’s career BABIP is .355, while Crawford’s is .325.

What does this tell me? It tells me that Reyes hasn’t learned to hit like a speedster should. As a right-handed batter Reyes should be hitting the ball on the ground to the left side. For obvious reasons (a shorter throw), a slow roller to the second baseman has a much better chance of becoming an out than a slow roller to the other side of the infield (3B and SS). Not only is he probably not hitting enough of his grounders to third or short, but his major league GB/FB ratio (1.35) is completely inadequate when compared to other players of his type that have had success (Ichiro is perennially well over 2, averaging around 2.50, for example--A big thanks to Matthew Souders for pointing this out to me). If you’re hitting it in the air, your speed doesn’t matter one iota. Here’s his progression chart for BABIP.

[Reyes' BABIP]

Since Reyes is young, and I’m hoping he is smart enough to realize the adjustment he needs to make, I’m going to project a slight increase in his BABIP, which will result in a slight better overall season. In 2006 Reyes’s BABIP will be .313.

Using that BABIP to project an obvious rise in Reyes’s batting average I came up with a number in the range of .287 - .292. To be safe, let’s say his 2006 average will fall right in the middle at a respectable .290.

Lastly, let’s look at Reyes’s ability to steal bases. This is an area of the game Reyes is clearly very good at, and his career 82 stolen base percentage attests to that. Since last season was his first full season, this is definitely an amazing number, and one that will most likely only get better with age. Knowing this, I am projecting Reyes’s SB% in 2006 to be 85%.

How many attempts will he get? I am going to project a decline here from Reyes’s 2005 total because of the power the Mets’ lineup possesses this season, most notably the presence of Carlos Delgado and a more experienced David Wright. The Mets are definitely not going to want to chance taking any RBI opportunities away from these guys by letting Reyes get caught stealing. Because of this Reyes will only be attempting to steal a base 52 times in 2006. This is a big drop-off from the 75 attempts that he accumulated last season, but considering who hits behind him, the fewer CS, the better. This will result in Reyes stealing 44 bases in 2006 and getting caught eight times.

Now back to the question I asked at the beginning of the article: Why do people keep calling Jose Reyes a superstar? Does a batting line of .290/.328/.404 (.732) with 44 SB’s scream “Superstar?”

Not in this writer's opinion. If Reyes is to ever become a superstar he’s going to have to improve his patience tremendously, and use his speed as an asset while at the plate. Either that or he’ll need to become at least the equal of fielders like Herman long and Dave Concepcion to make his lack of offensive punch more bearable. As it is, Reyes is little more than a speedy slap hitter with questionable defensive fundamentals, an injury history, and limited potential to be more.

Thank you for reading. If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.