I don't have a problem with the amount of money Alfonso Soriano is going to make on a per-year basis as a Chicago Cub. In today's market, he's probably worth $17 million a year. What I do have a problem with is the length of the contract. Eight years? Really? Eight years?
No player, position or pitcher, is even close to "projectable" beyond five years. There is no way that the Cubs can have any idea what type of player they will have beyond 2010--when Soriano will have only reached the half-way point of his contract! I'm sure they did the best they can to try and figure what type of player he might be, and with the idea that fast players--like Soriano--tend to age well, and that patience at the plate is one of the elements of a player's game that, for the most part, continues to improve throughout a players mid-thirties, I'm sure Soriano will be a very good player for the next few seasons...but through 2015? It's just impossible to forecast.
An even bigger problem is that the player in question is already 31 years old. But that is beyond the scope of this article. Today, I am here to try and project Soriano's first season as a Chicago Cub. As you will see by the end of the composition, next season Soriano will be worth $17 million.
Fresh off of my first off-season projection article written about J.D. Drew, this will be my second attempt to project a players 2007 season using my new system which completely neutralizes a players past seasons from his home ballpark, then predicts his next season using those "park-neutral" seasons, then "plugs" them into his 2007 home ballpark.
Here is Alfonso Soriano's past three unadjusted seasons:
Year |
AB |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
2004 |
608 |
0.280 |
0.324 |
0.484 |
0.808 |
28 |
91 |
18 |
2005 |
637 |
0.268 |
0.309 |
0.512 |
0.821 |
36 |
104 |
30 |
2006 |
647 |
0.277 |
0.351 |
0.560 |
0.911 |
46 |
95 |
41 |
OK, we all see it. It sticks out like a "sore thumb"--Soriano's 2006 campaign. Last season Soriano posted career bests in OBP, SLG, and HR's. It was by definition, his "career year." It could also be described as the most surprising individual season in all of baseball in 2006 as well. You see, in 2004 and 2005 Soriano played his home games in Ameriquest Field as a Texas Ranger--a place where one would expect him to put up his best power numbers. Yet, it wasn't until Soriano's home ballpark became the pitcher-friendly RFK Stadium in Washington D.C. last season that he actually did post his best power numbers--when everybody, including me, projected him to only get worse.
But that wasn't all for the surprises that Soriano would provide in 2006. His increased patience at the plate was also very unexpected. The .351 OBP he posted last year was 42 points higher than his output in 2005 and 31 points higher than his career OBP coming into 2006 (.320 in 3255 AB's). But, just looking at a player's OBP isn't a good indicator of thier patience at the plate, there are much better metrics to do that. One, of which, is the amount of pitches he sees per plate appearance (P/PA), and another is shown by dividing his Non-intentional Base on Balls (NIBB) by his total plate appearances to show how often he was drawing a walk (PA/NIBB). Here are those numbers for each season of Soriano's career where he amassed at least 500 plate appearances:
| SEASON | PA | IBB | BB | NIBB | PA/NIBB | P/PA |
| 2001 | 614 | 0 | 29 | 29 | 21.17 | 3.84 |
| 2002 | 741 | 1 | 23 | 22 | 33.68 | 3.58 |
| 2003 | 734 | 7 | 38 | 31 | 23.68 | 3.55 |
| 2004 | 658 | 4 | 33 | 29 | 22.69 | 3.65 |
| 2005 | 682 | 3 | 33 | 30 | 22.73 | 3.65 |
| 2006 | 728 | 16 | 67 | 51 | 14.27 | 3.90 |
According to both metrics Soriano was, without question, a much more patient hitter than he'd ever been last season. And make no mistake about it, this helped him improve in every other category across the board. By waiting for "his pitch" Soriano was able to make better contact and hit for more power when he did make contact. Don't let anybody fool you, waiting for "his pitch" allowed Soriano to succeed.
As I mentioned earlier, patience at the plate is a facet of the game that players continue to improve upon even as they age into their thirties. So while last year was an uncommonly high jump in patience for one player, it does shows that Soriano is improving as the "script" says he should. Even though regression in this area must be predicted from his 2006 numbers, overall improvment from the patience he showed in his career prior to 2006 is imminent. Just that fact, in itself, makes Soriano a better bet to have a season in 2007 similar to the monster campaign he had in 2006.
OK, now that we've seen Soriano's previous three unadjusted seasons; and we know that his improved patience at the plate was the root of his success in 2006, let's now have a look at his previous three seasons with the adjustments for his home ballpark applied:
Year |
AB |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
2004 |
602 |
.276 |
.320 |
.477 |
.797 |
28 |
86 |
18 |
2005 |
631 |
.265 |
.306 |
.506 |
.812 |
36 |
98 |
30 |
2006 |
654 |
.287 |
.361 |
.595 |
.956 |
51 |
100 |
41 |
Before continuing, go back and look at Soriano's unadjusted 2006 season above, then look at his adjusted season in the preceding chart. It becomes very clear the RFK Stadium, believe it or not, actual "held" Soriano back last season. In a neutral ballpark he would have hit 51 HR's, and his OPS would have been 45 points higher!
Using calculated rate stats figured with the numbers in the park-adjusted charts above I came up with this "park-neutral" 2007 projected season for Soriano:
641 AB, .282/.345/.540, .885 OPS, 39 HR, 119 RBI, 45 SB
Plugging this season into Wrigley Field will only improve his numbers. Using data from the 2004 through 2006 seasons the Chicago Cubs home ballpark has a 119 HR park factor for right-handed hitters (like Soriano) and a 102 Batting Average park factor for righties. This means that after putting the projected park-neutral 2007 season into Wrigley Field we, unbelievably, get an even better season:
644 AB, .283/.345/.560, .905 OPS, 43 HR, 123 RBI, 45 SB
As you can see, this is a season that is very similar to Soriano's 2006 unadjusted campaign with the Washington Nationals. While he will regress a tad simply because of the fact that last year was probably the best Soriano can perform, when his new hitter-friendly home ballpark (Wrigley Field) is accounted for, he remains at the same level of productivity.
Am I being a fool here?
You see, after the 2004 season was completed two years ago I was a fool when I predicted that season's biggest surprise player, Adrian Beltre, would continue to dominate in 2005 for his new team--the Seattle Mariners. It was in that 2004 season that Beltre posted a .334/.388/.629 batting line to go along with 48 HR and 121 RBI as a Los Angeles Dodger; and it was in January of the next year when I projected this season for Beltre in his first year as a Mariner:
591 AB, .315/.368/.586, .954 OPS, 43 HR, 112 RBI
He ended up hitting .255/.303/.413 with 19 HR and 87 RBI that season. Ouch! I was embarassed by this, and try to make sure I don't make such an idiot of myself on a daily basis because of it. So why do I project such a standout season from Soriano when there is such a distinct possibility that I will come out looking like the "village idiot" again?
First of all, there is the fact that Soriano had a "legit" dominant season in 2006, unlike Beltre in 2004. What do I mean by "legit?" Essentially, I mean that Soriano had a season that wasn't highly "batting average-dependent" in 2006. He drew walks, showed patience at the plate, and most importantly had only a league-aveage BABIP in the process (.302). Each of those factors show that luck wasn't an overwhelming factor in his success--like it was for Beltre in 2004.
One way to determine if a player's production is highly "batting average-dependent" is to subract his AVG from his OBP. If this number is less than .055 (the AL average in this category in 2006 was .064, while in the NL it was .069) his main source of getting on base was via the base hit. While there is nothing wrong with this, it is indicitive of a player that has gotten lucky, and will have a hard time sustaining the kind of productivity he had in the season in question.
In 2006 the difference between Soriano's park-adjusted OBP and AVG was .074--this was legit production. This is backed up by the fact that his BABIP was right around the league average--.302--as stated earlier. Luck did not play that large a factor in Soriano's dominance in 2006.
Now, when you look at Beltre's 2004 park-adjusted season (604 AB, .338/.391/.621) you notice that the difference between his OBP and AVG was .053, showing luck did play a fair role in his dominance. This is backed up by the fact that his BABIP that season was a robust .328--much higher than league average (.300).
So, while I am taking a risk predicting Soriano to have a repeat of his stellar 2006 season, it's not as big a risk as the one I took with Beltre back in 2005.
Just as a reminder, since there was a lot of numbers in this article, here is my 2007 projected season for Soriano:
644 AB, .283/.345/.560, .905 OPS, 43 HR, 123 RBI, 45 SB
At least for one season, Soriano will be worth $17 million.
***As I did in the J.D. Drew article, I will compare my projection to the one Baseball Prospectus and their PECOTA system calculated. They project a .287/.349/.569 (.905 OPS) batting line to go along with 39 HR, 110 RBI and 31 SB's. Again, my projection is eerily similar.***
Thank you for reading. If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.
