At Home Plate - Too little, too late for Phillies?

Written by Jonathan Leshanski (Contact & Archive) on July 08, 2012

Jim Thome wasn’t hitting a lick when the Phillies traded him to Baltimore. Chad Qualls had to be designated for assignment before the Yankees claimed him. Neither of these were moves that signaled that the Phillies are throwing in the towel on the 2012 season. But to be fair the front office has to be thinking about it.

Still if things are going to change they will do so immediately after the All-Star break. That’s when the Phillies expect to get back two of their biggest and most needed stars.

Ryan Howard facing the heat.

Photo by Matthew Straubmuller, used under creative commons license.

And while the return of Roy Halladay and Ryan Howard should give the team a shot in the arm, the Phillies will need to rattle off a good string of victories before the July 31 non-waiver trading deadline to convince the front office that it isn’t time to sell off key assets like soon to be free agent Cole Hamels.

That might be the equivalent of asking the still gimping Ryan Howard to perform the 12 labors of Hercules, an onerous task for a guy who still hasn’t proven he can play seven innings, let alone nine, in the field since his Achilles tendon surgery back in October. Howard is the big question mark for this team, and he would’ve been that question mark even if he had been 100 percent healthy coming into the season.

You can blame that on his age (32) and what might be a declining skill set -- power and average numbers that have fallen dramatically since he turned 30. Howard is no longer the guy who can be counted on to hit 40 home runs in a season. Thirty might be a stretch, and that’s if he’s healthy. If he’s not, well, there goes the ballgame.

Still having him in the lineup should help the rest of the team immeasurably. Even if he isn’t the Ryan Howard of old, teams are going to do their best to make sure that Howard isn’t the guy who beats them. That adds up to better pitches for Chase Utley batting in front of him and better pitches for whomever it is who’ll bat after him once manager Charlie Manuel starts regularly penciling Howard back into the cleanup spot.

Will that be enough by itself? Not a chance. The Phillies offence hasn’t been the main culprit in their miserable first half. The unlikely problem areas have been pitching and defense, both of which have been middling all season. The return of Halladay should do the Phillies some good every fifth day, but Halladay himself won’t be nearly enough.

Maybe it will help that Cliff Lee has finally gotten into the win column. It gives him something to build on and any psychological pressure about that first win should be gone. Halladay’s return to the rotation should take a lot of stress off of Lee and Hamels, and possibly even the bullpen provided Halladay is his old self and unlikely to need too much help before the eighth inning of a given game. Best of all it will allow the Phillies to move one of the back of the rotation arms into the bullpen (Kendrick being the most likely candidate). All of that could help the Phillies make up a little ground.

Defensively you’d like to say the team can tighten up and commit fewer errors the rest of the season, but it isn’t going to happen. The right side of the infield is going to be a big vulnerability. Between Chase Utley’s balky knees and the limited mobility of Ryan Howard any ball hit to that side could be an adventure. Meanwhile the left side, where the ghost of Jimmy Rollins still patrols the shortstop position, and 36-year-old Placido Polanco plays third isn’t exactly rock solid either.

Defense and pitching won’t improve enough to make the Phillies a playoff ready team without help. That means the Phillies will have to do a lot of talking with their bats in order to make themselves into contenders. It comes down to Ryan Howard and just what he can contribute to the offense. Can he be Hercules and help the Phillies reel off 10 or more wins before the July 31 Trading deadline?

If he can’t the Phillies will be sellers by the end of the month and the rebuilding will officially begin.

Add this page to your favorite Social Bookmarking websites