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Lincecum has dominated every league he’s ever thrown in. He has not just been “good” in the five leagues that he’s pitched in: he may have been the best pitcher in all of them at one time or another. For the National League, and Major League baseball as a whole, is that time now?
Lincecum was a very good pitcher when he first started his NCAA career, but he didn’t appear great until his Junior year. Timmy demonstrated steady progression each year, so it’s no surprise that he continued to improve after leaving college.
Career statistics at Washington:
Year
|
IP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
K/BB
|
HR/9
|
ERA
|
| 2004 |
112.1
|
12.90
|
6.57
|
1.96
|
0.4
|
3.53
|
2005
|
104.1
|
11.30
|
6.12
|
1.85
|
0.35
|
3.11
|
2006
|
125.1 |
14.29
|
4.52
|
3.16
|
0.58
|
1.94
|
The huge jump in his final year is exactly what scouts like to see before drafting a player, as long as the progress can believed to be genuine. And on top of showing an enormous improvement, the numbers themselves were also miraculous. In comparison with other pitchers picked ahead of him, Tim blows the class away:
NCAA Stats. In Final Years
Player
|
Innings Pitched |
Strikeouts
|
Walks
|
ERA
|
Lincecum
|
125.1
|
199
|
63
|
1.94
|
Hochevar
|
139.2
|
154
|
54
|
2.26
|
Miller
|
123.1
|
133
|
40
|
2.48
|
Lincoln
|
127.2
|
152
|
32
|
1.69
|
Obviously, all four had extremely good seasons in their last year of Division I Baseball; you don’t get drafted it the top-10 unless you have a miraculous season. But Lincecum dominated the competition on another level, with nearly 200 strikeouts in the short college season. Based purely on numbers, Lincecum was the best choice, though Lincoln also had a surprisingly good season.
Fans are left only with concerns over Lincecum’s durability as excuses for why Luke Hochevar, Andrew Miller and (unfortunately for Pirates fans) Brad Lincoln were picked ahead of him. Scouts generally do not like the violent mechanics that Tim uses to generate velocity, nor do they like his small body size. To an extent, their concerns are valid: Giant’s fans should be terrified at the thought of Lincecum turning into Leo Nunez. But, at least for now, he’s earning the early season comparisons to Pedro Martinez.
But is Lincecum better than other pitchers in the majors? In 2008, DIPS thinks so.
If you’re not familiar with DIPS, it stands for “Defense Independent Pitching Statistics.” DIPS measures the only three outcomes that a pitcher can be said to truly be in control of, those being his strikeouts, walks allowed, and home runs allowed. While it’s my personal belief that DIPS should be modified to include groundball to flyball ratios (rather than home runs allowed) it does have its merits as an objective pitching metric.
Currently, Lincecum is ranked 3rd in DIPS, only behind Cliff Lee and Javier Vazquez. While Lee’s start has truly been incredible, his track record as a mediocre pitcher is too lengthy and it looms ominously over contentions that he’s one of baseball’s best. Vazquez has had better fortunes in the past, but he has underperformed his DIPS expectations time after time, suggesting he’s more hittable than it gives him credit for.
Vazquez, 2004-2008
Year
|
FIP*
|
ERA
|
| 2004 |
4.83
|
4.91
|
2005
|
3.96
|
4.42
|
2006
|
3.94
|
4.84
|
2007
|
3.92
|
3.74
|
2008
|
2.51
|
3.53
|
*Field Independent Pitching, similar to DIPS
You could trace Javier’s career since it started, but because this is a fairly sizeable sample size (and because I’m a lazy guy, and this is as far as easily available data on The Hardball Times goes back), we’ll just start in 2004. Is it possible that Javier has simply been unlucky in almost every year that he’s pitched? Sure, it’s possible. I think, however, that with a trend like this, there’s something about Vazquez’ pitching that FIP isn’t designed to indicate.
Lincecum is leading baseball in strikeouts, despite being a start behind many of his challengers, and he’s third in both DIPS and ERA among qualified pitchers. I posed this topic purely as a question, and not as an answer: perhaps only scouts can come to a conclusion on whether or not Lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball right now, and for the rest of us, only time can provide answers. But for the moment, Lincecum is not only matching the likes of Johan, Peavy, and Webb pitch for pitch: he’s out-pitching them.
You can contact Tom Lindsey via the writer's Profile or the AHP Staff via the contact form.
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