At Home Plate - 2010 Season Preview: Washington Nationals

2010 Season Preview: Washington Nationals

Written by Jonathan Leshanski (Contact & Archive) on April 01, 2010

The Skinny:
The Nationals are in no danger of unseating the Phillies as division champs or making their first playoff appearance, but this Nationals team is the best one that they've yet fielded in their short history. The offense doesn't look half bad, the pitching has at least two solid arms, maybe more, and the team has a good mixture of youngsters and veterans who'll making watching baseball in the DC area a bit more relevant this year.

2009 Regular Season Record: 59-103
Rank: Last in the NL East - 34.0 Games Back
Home Park: Nationals Park

Mall'ers:

Ryan Zimmerman is the best homegrown hitter the Nationals have.

Photo by Keith Allison, used under creative commons license.

C - Ivan Rodriguez (Free Agent from Rangers)
1B - Josh Whitesell* (Free Agent from D'Backs)
2B - Adam Kennedy (Free Agent from A's)
IF - Eric Bruntlett* (Free Agent from Phillies)
OF - Chris Duncan* (Free Agent from Red Sox)
OF - Willy Tavaras* (Free Agent from Reds via A's)
OF - Kevin Mench* (Free Agent, played in Japan last season)
LHP - Eddie Guardado* (Free Agent from Rangers)
LHP - Chuck James* (Free Agent from Braves)
RHP - Brian Bruney (Trade with Yankees)
RHP Chien-Ming Wang (Free Agent from Yankees)
RHP - Tyler Walker (Free Agent from Phillies)
RHP - Miguel Batista* Free Agent from Mariners)
RHP - Jason Marquis (Free Agent from Rockies)
RHP - Matt Capps (Non Tendered, from Pirates)

Expatriates:
C - Josh Bard* (Free Agent signed with Mariners)
1B - Dmitri Young (Retired)
OF - Austin Kearns* (Free Agent, signed with Indians)
RHP - Saul Rivera* (Free Agent signed with Indians)
RHP - Mike MacDougal* (Non Tendered, singed with Marlins)
RHP - Marco Estrada (Waiver Claim by Brewers)

*Signed minor league contract.

Strengths: Offense
Last year the Nationals finished in the lower half of the National League in terms of runs score. That shouldn't be as much of a problem this year as the Nats offense actually looks fairly formidable. While not everyone in the lineup has managed to put it all together, any offense that features Nyjer Morgan should give the middle of the lineup a chance to score plenty of runs. And the next four in the lineup Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham offer plenty of power. Zimmerman and Dunn are well known quantities, but Willingham has been plagued by inconsistency. After that the Nats will be counting on 38 year old Ivan Rodriguez to at least hit for average in front of the light hitting Adam Kennedy.

Weaknesses: Starting Pitching, Defense.
The Nats had the worst defense in all of baseball last season and allowed 83 unearned runs because of that. They've made some moves to shore that up for 2010, by adding Adam Kennedy, moving Dunn to first (he committed 8 outfield errors last year), and adding Ivan Rodriguez who should help keep opposing teams from running wild on the base paths. Still they do look shaky defensively and projecting them to be in the bottom third defensively isn't an absurd proposition.

The starting rotation is promising, but that's about all you can really say about it. Only John Lannan and Jason Marquis are locks for the rotation, but the rotation could go from mediocre to moderately solid if Scott Olsen and Chien-Ming Wang bounce back from their injuries to regain their effectiveness. Stephen Strasburg, the most touted pitching prospect, possibly of all time, won't start the season with the big team, but he might well get a shot a few month down the road. The team signed Livan Hernandez to minor league deal, and he'll probably get a rotation spot to open the season. After that it's wide open with at least five contenders for the final rotation spot.

No matter what happens the Nats will open the season with a thin rotation, but it could get a lot better as the season moves on.

Potential Lineup
CF - Nyjer Morgan
2B - Adam Kennedy
3B - Ryan Zimmerman
1B - Adam Dunn
LF - Josh Willingham
RF - Elijah Dukes
C - Ivan Rodriguez
SS - Ian Desmond

Rotation
John Lannan
Jason Marquis
Scott Olsen
Livan Hernandez
???? - Eventually Stephen Strasburg

Closer
Matt Capps

One question that need answering:
How much better are these Nats? The wheels would have to fall off for the team not to manage an improvement over last season's ugly win total, but can they make a run for fourth place? Or for .500? It seems a lot to ask, but it's not inconceivable.

Prediction:
The Nationals are likely to be looking at another last place finish, but they should be a better team than they were last year. How much better? .500 is probably a longshot, but 75 wins might well be realistic. That would be a tremendous improvement, but they'll probably still finish no better than fourth, but fifth is where I'd project them to end up.

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