The Skinny:
The Rays weren't nearly as bad as their 2009 record looked.  They had a few not unexpected growing pains, they had some injuries issues which defanged a bit of their offense, and they didn't have a real closer.  Despite that it was a good season for the Rays, one which let their youngsters gain some needed experience as the organization plans to stay in contention for years to come.  It's not a huge reach to imagine this team coming together in 2010 or 2011 and winning the division once again.

2009 Regular Season Record: 84-78
Rank: Third AL East
Home Park: Tropicana Field

Rays of Hope:

The Rays hope Carlos Pena can improve on his .227 batting average last season.

Photo by Keith Allison, used under creative commons license.

Ray "Bans":
C - Gregg Zaun (Free Agent signed with Brewers)
C- Michael Hernandez* (Free Agent signed with Orioles)
2B - Akinori Iwamura (Traded to Pirates)
OF - Gabe Gross (Non Tendered, signed with A's)
LHP - Brian Shouse* (Free Agent signed with Red Sox)
RHP - Russ Springer (Free Agent unsigned)
RHP - Chad Bradford (Free Agent unsigned)

*Signed minor league contract.

The Rays rotation is one built with a long term view and it has more potential than probably any other rotation anywhere in the game today -- and none of them have come close to reaching their potential.  Matt Garza and James Shields have seemed close before and either could take the step up to ace caliber while there isn't a team who wouldn't like to have even one of the Rays other starters somewhere in their organization.  Think Glavine, Maddux, Smoltz kind of talent, or so the Rays believe.

The bullpen is solid too.  While it doesn't have the big names, or get the hype that pens in larger markets do, the arms are good.  J.P Howell will prove to be a solid set up man for Rafael Soriano, while Grant Balfour, Lance Cormier, Randy Choate and Dan Howell should be able to handle the earlier innings fairly well.  Andy Sonnanstine will likely work as the long man and spot starter unless he gets traded, as has been rumored.  If their past performance is any indication it should be one of the strongest pens in the east.

Weaknesses: Uncertainty about production from Pena and Burrell, starting pitcher inexperience.
It's hard to call Carlos Pena's 2009 season a bit of a failure (.227-39-100-91) but there isn't a team in baseball who can expect to compete with the Yankees when their cleanup hitter hits .227.  Between the average and a broken finger suffered early in September which had to be surgically repaired, there have to be some questions as to what exactly Pena is bringing to the table.   And just what he brings might determine Pena's future with the Rays as 2010 is the final year of his contract and he has expressed interest in re-signing with the team.  While that could provide huge incentive for an improvement on last year, it could also greatly increase the pressure on him as he's a notorious slow starter in the first half of the season (Career average in April .217 in May .240 and almost half his home runs (97 of 202) have come in August and September) which could lead to some real pressing.   A deal before opening day would certainly ease the pressure on the 32 year old Pena.

Another key player who clearly was a flop last season was DH Pat Burrell (.221-14-64-45) who massively failed to live up to the expectation the Rays had when they signed him to a two-year deal before last season.  At 34 Burrell should still have more to offer and he seems to have come into camp ready to play, but after last season just what contribution he'll make is unknown.

Aside from James Shields and Matt Garza, the projected rotation has a grand total of 62 Major League starts under their belt.  While Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann and David Price look like some of the very best young pitching talents in the game, they are very inexperienced and raw and will be thrown into the grinder against the offenses of the Yankees and Red Sox.  If they stand up to the pressure the Rays could cruise to a division title, but if they struggle too much things could get ugly.

Potential Lineup
SS - Jason Bartlett
LF - Carl Crawford
3B - Evan Longoria
RF/2B - Ben Zobrist
1B - Carlos Pena
CF - B.J. Upton
DH - Pat Burrell
2B - Sean Rodriguez / RF - Matt Joyce
C- Kelly Shoppach

Rotation
James Shields
Matt Garza
Jeff Niemann
David Price
Wade Davis

Closer
Rafael Soriano

One question that need answering:
How good will the young starters be?  The Rays season will likely hinge upon how good the youngsters are.  They won't need all of them to step up big time, but if they do the rest of the AL had best look out.

Prediction:
I believe the Rays pitching will step up. Led by Garza and Shields, who'll shoulder the lion's share of the burden, the Rays will crush the weaker teams in the AL and more than hold their own against their division rivals.  This is a team that is largely young and on the rise as opposed to the entrenched teams who've controlled the East for the past decade and a half.  That plays to the Rays advantage and this year may well be one in which they rise up.  I think the Rays will win the division and they have the potential to run away with it.

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