The Skinny:
After their fifth playoff appearance in the last eight years the Twins once again went into the off-season feeling like they were still on the right track in terms of player development.  They can't compete with the payrolls of the big teams, but after being swept of out the ALDS once again by the Yankees, management clearly decided to make some changes, although not major ones, to make the team more competitive then it was last year.  Thus the Twins come into 2010 as division favorites and fielding the best offense they've had in a decade.

Joe Nathan may need surgery that would keep him off the field for most of the season.

Photo by Keith Allison, used under creative commons license.

2009 Regular Season Record

Familial:
1B - Jim Thome (Free Agent from Dodgers)
2B - Orlando Hudson (Free Agent from Dodgers)
SS - J.J, Hardy (Trade with Brewers)
LHP - Mike Maroth* (Free Agent)
RHP - Clay Condrey (Free Agent from Phillies)

Adopted Out:
C - Mike Redmond (Free Agent Signed with Indians)
SS - Orlando Cabrera (Free Agent signed with Reds)
3B - Joe Crede (Free Agent, unsigned)
IF - Justin Huber (Free Agent Signed in Japan)
OF - Jason Pridie (Waiver Claim by Mets)
OF - Carlos Gomez (Trade with Brewers)
LHP - Ron Mahay (Free Agent, unsigned)
RHP - Bobby Keppel (Free Agent signed in Japan)
RHP - Juan Morillo (Free Agent signed in Japan)
RHP - Armando Gabino (Waiver Claim by Orioles)
RHP - Philip Humber* (Free Agent signed with Royals)
RHP - Boof Bonser (Trade with Red Sox)

*Signed minor league contract.

Strengths:  An Elite Closer to top a solid bullpen, Good Offense, Starters with upside.

The Twins tend to win a lot of games late and locking down wins has become a commonplace event for any Twins bullpen.  While elite closer Joe Nathan gets the bulk of the glory, players like Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Jose Milares and Jon Rauch deserved a fair bit of the credit in 2009.  That doesn't look to change although those arms will find some additional backup from Clay Condrey and whichever lefties win the two final spots in the pen. This is assuming Nathan's elbow will be all right. If not, that reduces the Twins' depth.

As mentioned above, this is the best offensive team the Twins have fielded in probably a decade.  The middle four in the lineup Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer and Kubel parked 118 balls in the seats last year and drove in 393 runs while hitting a combined .290.  That's not small stuff, especially now that they've added Orlando Hudson as another tablesetter behind Denard Span.  Seventh hitter Delmon Young looks poised to take another step forward too, while J.J Hardy could easily have a rebound year after a disaster of a season in 2009.

And then there are the starters.  Throw out Carl Pavano for a moment, as Pavano's role isn't to be a star pitcher, but to help advise and provide wisdom to a group of young pitchers with seemingly limitless potential.  Blackburn, Slowey, Baker and Lirano have all shown flashes of brilliance just to come back down to earth time and time again.  They've had a lot of injuries woes and a fair bit of performance anxiety at times, but the talent is there and there is more behind it -- as Brian Dunsing and Glen Perkins are waiting in the wings for a chance to step into the spotlight.  If any of it gels the Twins could run away with the division.

Weaknesses: Non proven pitching staff, state of Mauer's contract, uncertainty as to how the team will adjust to new ballpark, possibly the tail end of their lineup.
While the talented young starters the Twins have is one of their greatest it is also their greatest weakness.  The Twins need to get solid seasons out of at least half of that bunch for the rotation to really gel into one of the elite rotations in the league -- and that will be key if the team hopes to not be sent home in the first round of the playoffs once again.  If the rotation fails to gel, that hope might be moot to begin with and there are plenty of questions about how effective Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano can be after returning from injuries last season, or if Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn have more to offer than what they've shown to date in their young careers.

The Joe Mauer situation is definitely in the back of everyone's mind as the team as April gets closer and closer.  Mauer, who can become an unrestricted free agent after the year, seems to want to stay in Minnesota and the Twins want to keep him there, but negotiations have not been moving quickly.  That probably isn't a concern for Mauer or the Twins, but it's definitely a concern for fans who've watched this team trade away big name player after big name player as it so often has failed to get deals done.

A wild card in the mix will be the team's new ballpark Target Field.  Leaving the power friendly Metrodome for an outdoor venue, especially for those early April, and late September games should prove an interesting adjustment.  While the dimensions of the field aren't wildly different Target Field will actually be a smaller park than the 'dome was, especially for balls hit to left field.

The last two spots in the batting order could easily be the weakest links of the whole team.  It's impossible to know just what the Twins will get out of JJ Hardy, or who their actual third baseman will be at the beginning of the season -- although at some point expect to see top rookie Danny Valencia, a pretty fair hitter to take over the job.  Most of the other candidates for the job give the term "light hitter" a bad name.

Potential Lineup
CF - Denard Span
2B - Orlando Hudson
C - Joe Mauer
1B - Justin Morneau
DH - Jason Kubel
RF - Michael Cuddyer
LF - Delmon Young
SS - J.J. Hardy
3B - Danny Valencia

Rotation
Scott Baker
Kevin Slowey
Carl Pavano
Francisco Liriano
Nick Blackburn

Closer
Joe Nathan

One question that need answering:
The starting pitching, how will it perform -- good? bad?  Same as last year?  It's what will tell the tale as to just how many games the Twins can expect to win.  If everything gels 100 is well within their grasp; if it doesn't a hair over .500 is still well in order.

Prediction:
The Twins will win the division although the White Sox will nip at their heels into late August.  A realistic call of 94 wins probably is in order but getting that many does require that the pitching improve over last year.  That could be complicated by the new park. For the Twins the good news is that no other team in the division has the same kind of talent that they do and they might actually still win the division if they finish above .500.

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