|Fantasy Baseball: Fantasy Draft Analysis (Round 12 - 21)||| Print |||Send|
Written by Tony Meale (Contact & Archive) on March 01, 2009
This was a standard 21-round, 12-team draft for a standard 5x5 rotisserie league. I studied each round to determine quality picks and questionable reaches and selected the best and worst of each round. This is part two, starting in the 12th round with Conor Jackson as the 133th overall pick and ending with Kosuke Fukudome to finish the draft.
(1) Team Twelve - Pablo Sandoval (SF - C,1B,3B)
(2) Team Eleven - Derek Lowe (Atl - SP)
(3) Team Ten - Max Scherzer (Ari - SP,RP)
(4) Team Nine - Kevin Slowey (Min - SP)
(5) Team Eight - Joey Devine (Oak - RP)
(6) Team Seven - Hideki Matsui (NYY - OF)
(7) Team Six - Heath Bell (SD - RP)
(8) Team Five - Adrián Béltre (Sea - 3B)
(9) Team Four - Erik Bedard (Sea - SP)
(10) Team Three - Randy Johnson (SF - SP)
(11) Team Two - Ted Lilly (ChC - SP)
(12) Team One - Justin Upton (Ari - OF)
Quality Pick: Pablo Sandoval
You have to like a guy who’s eligible at three positions. Plus, the 22-year-old looked sharp in his 41-game debut last year; over the course of a full season, he could give you .325/10/90/90.
Questionable Reach: Joey Devine
He’s a dynamite dark horse at reliever this year, but the fourteenth round is a little early.
(1) Team One - José López (Sea - 1B,2B)
(2) Team Two - Lastings Milledge (Was - OF)
(3) Team Three - Wandy Rodríguez (Hou - SP)
(4) Team Four - Brandon Morrow (Sea - SP,RP)
(5) Team Five - Nelson Cruz (Tex - OF)
(6) Team Six - Billy Wagner (NYM - RP)
(7) Team Seven - Trevor Hoffman (Mil - RP)
(8) Team Eight - Johnny Cueto (Cin - SP)
(9) Team Nine - Mike González (Atl - RP)
(10) Team Ten - Jered Weaver (LAA - SP)
(11) Team Eleven - John Maine (NYM - SP)
(12) Team Twelve - Joe Saunders (LAA - SP)
Quality Pick: Joe Saunders
The WHIP (1.21) and strikeouts (103) aren’t eye-popping, but they don’t hurt you, either. And given his wins (17) and ERA (3.41), you could do a lot worse in the fifteenth round.
Questionable Reach: Billy Wagner
You have to figure that even if K-Rod goes down, setup man J.J. Putz will step into the closer’s role. Drafting a setup man for a setup man in any round is pretty pointless.
(1) Team Twelve - Mark DeRosa (Cle - 2B,3B,OF)
(2) Team Eleven - Chien-Ming Wang (NYY - SP)
(3) Team Ten - Joel Hanrahan (Was - RP)
(4) Team Nine - Gavin Floyd (CWS - SP)
(5) Team Eight - Willy Taveras (Cin - OF)
(6) Team Seven - Troy Percival (TB - RP)
(7) Team Six - Johnny Damon (NYY - OF)
(8) Team Five - Frank Francisco (Tex - RP)
(9) Team Four - Bengie Molina (SF - C)
(10) Team Three - Chris Young (Ari - OF)
(11) Team Two - Matt Lindstrom (Fla - RP)
(12) Team One - Travis Snider (Tor - OF)
Quality Pick: Willy Taveras
Taveras single-handedly puts you at – or near – the top of the league in steals; he had 68 last year and said his goal for this season is 100. I don’t care what is average is (Taveras hit .251 last year); a hitter who can get you 100 steals is like a pitcher who can get you 400 strikeouts. I’d say that’s sixteenth-round worthy.
Questionable Reach: Chris Young
Young set a career high in batting average last season, but that’s not saying much; he hit .248. And with only 22 homers to boot, he’s nothing more than a poor-man’s Adam Dunn.
(1) Team One - Brad Ziegler (Oak - RP)
(2) Team Two - Coco Crisp (KC - OF)
(3) Team Three - Gil Meche (KC - SP)
(4) Team Four - Fernando Rodney (Det - RP)
(5) Team Five - Chris Pérez (StL - RP)
(6) Team Six - Jim Thome (CWS - Util)
(7) Team Seven - Justin Duchscherer (Oak - SP)
(8) Team Eight - Cameron Maybin (Fla - OF)
(9) Team Nine - Miguel Tejada (Hou - SS)
(10) Team Ten - Andre Ethier (LAD - OF)
(11) Team Eleven - Brad Hawpe (Col - OF)
(12) Team Twelve - Mike Pelfrey (NYM - SP)
Quality Pick: Justin Duchscherer
Questionable Reach: Fernando Rodney
He’ll get you some saves, but is the 0-6 record, 4.91 ERA and 1.59 WHIP worth it?
(1) Team Twelve - Juan Pierre (LAD - OF)
(2) Team Eleven - James Loney (LAD - 1B)
(3) Team Ten - Kelly Johnson (Atl - 2B)
(4) Team Nine - Alex Gordon (KC - 3B)
(5) Team Eight - Dioner Navarro (TB - C)
(6) Team Seven - Chris Carpenter (StL - SP)
(7) Team Six - Shin-Soo Choo (Cle - OF)
(8) Team Five - George Sherrill (Bal - RP)
(9) Team Four - Carlos Guillén (Det - 1B,3B)
(10) Team Three - Rick Ankiel (StL - OF)
(11) Team Two - Mark Buehrle (CWS - SP)
(12) Team One - Jose Arredondo (LAA - RP)
Quality Pick: Jose Arredondo
Ten wins, a 1.62 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP and 55 strikeouts in 61.0 innings? That’s pretty efficient. And he’s only 24.
Questionable Reach: Chris Carpenter
It’s hard to call anything a “reach” at this point, but you’re better off drafting young prospects than someone who’s 34 and has played in just five games since 2006.
(1) Team One - Rickie Weeks (Mil - 2B)
(2) Team Two - Paul Konerko (CWS - 1B)
(3) Team Three - Hiroki Kuroda (LAD - SP)
(4) Team Four - Pat Burrell (TB - OF)
(5) Team Five - A.J. Pierzynski (CWS - C)
(6) Team Six - Troy Glaus (StL - 3B)
(7) Team Seven - John Smoltz (Bos - SP)
(8) Team Eight - Ubaldo Jiménez (Col - SP)
(9) Team Nine - Kazuo Matsui (Hou - 2B)
(10) Team Ten - Adam Jones (Bal - OF)
(11) Team Eleven - Khalil Greene (StL - SS)
(12) Team Twelve - Plácido Polanco (Det - 2B)
Quality Pick: Ubaldo Jimenez
Jimenez is 25 with nasty stuff. Even playing in Colorado, the potential is there to improve across the board (12 wins, 3.99 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 172 strikeouts in 2008).
Questionable Reach: Rickie Weeks
Yes, even in round 19. I thought the .235 clip in 2007 was a fluke, but then Weeks hit .234 in 2008. Unless he’s a monster in another category – he’s not – you’re better off staying away.
(1) Team Twelve - José Guillén (KC - OF)
(2) Team Eleven - Elijah Dukes (Was - OF)
(3) Team Ten - Nick Swisher (NYY - 1B,OF)
(4) Team Nine - Adam Lind (Tor - OF)
(5) Team Eight - Tim Hudson (Atl - SP)
(6) Team Seven - Oliver Pérez (NYM - SP)
(7) Team Six - Akinori Iwamura (TB - 2B)
(8) Team Five - Delmon Young (Min - OF)
(9) Team Four - Orlando Cabrera (CWS - SS)
(10) Team Three - Mike Cameron (Mil - OF)
(11) Team Two - Eric Byrnes (Ari - OF)
(12) Team One - Fausto Carmona (Cle - SP)
Quality Pick: Elijah Dukes
Dukes showed his all-around potential last year. In just 81 games last year, he hit 13 homers, had 44 RBI, scored 48 runs and stole 13 bases. I’m sure you can add, but over the course of an entire season, that’s 26/88/96/26. He needs to raise that .264 average, but seeing as how he’s just 24, it’s certainly probable he will.
Questionable Reach: Nick Swisher
Meet the Yankees’ new Jason Giambi, only worse. In 2008, Giambi hit .247 with 32 bombs; Swisher had just 24 while hitting .219. And sadly enough, Giambi was still on the board.
(1) Team One - Travis Hafner (Cle - Util)
(2) Team Two - Chris Volstad (Fla - SP)
(3) Team Three - Jason Giambi (Oak - 1B)
(4) Team Four - Orlando Hudson (LAD - 2B)
(5) Team Five - Billy Butler (KC - 1B)
(6) Team Six - Grant Balfour (TB - RP)
(7) Team Seven - Phil Hughes (NYY - SP)
(8) Team Eight - Hank Blalock (Tex - 1B,3B)
(9) Team Nine - Jeremy Hermida (Fla - OF)
(10) Team Ten - Mark Reynolds (Ari - 3B)
(11) Team Eleven - Jonathan Sánchez (SF - SP)
(12) Team Twelve - Kosuke Fukudome (ChC - OF)
Quality Pick: Mark Reynolds
In Reynolds’ first full year in the bigs last season, his batting average was pretty bad (.239). But his other numbers – 28 homers, 97 RBI, 87 runs and 11 stolen bases – weren’t. If he can cut down on those 204 strikeouts, he could be a valuable fantasy contributor by season’s end.
Questionable Reach: N/A
At this point, nothing is questionable. Besides, last-round picks typically find their way on the waiver wire within a week.