It's all the rage to be on twitter (I'm on it, @adkwriter), and it's a blast to read some of my favorite writer's thoughts.Â Be it Keith Law, Kevin Goldstein, Bill Simmons, or even guys I don't read other than for the gossip.Â
Like Jon Heyman.Â Who said this about a possible SF Giants-Florida Marlins swap, Jon Sanchez for Dan Uggla:
"i keep getting asked about jonathan sanchez for uggla rumor. i have to think the giants are a lot smarter than that!"
Really?Â Let's look at their second base situation for a moment.
Currently, the Giants are employing Emmanuel Burris, a switch hitter without power, on-base or average skills.Â He's hitting a robust .257/.312/.289.Â I can see why the Giants would be "too smart" to pass up on spinning him (He did manage an OPS of .686 in 274 plate appearances last year, after all!).
How about Jonathan Sanchez?Â I mean, Heyman is a quality writer for a prominent sports publication, it's not like he'd go and say something totally off kilter, would he?Â Surely Sanchez has been flat out awesome, right?
Believe it or not, he's been awful.Â 5.19 ERA in 52 innings, a slim WHIP of 1.654 and a sparkling BB/9 rate of 6.2, which is about double what you want--Lincecum's is 2.8.Â Sanchez does strike out a lot of batters, but even more seem to just pound him.Â He's spent his entire career in the NL West, and he's never produced an ERA of less than 4.95.Â Sanchez is what he is, an awful pitcher.
Now, to be fair to Jon, Dan Uggla hasn't been stellar.Â .222/.342/.454 is not pretty, but there is one fine little stat to watch out for: BABIP, which stands for Batting Average on Balls In Play.Â It's a wonderful way to see if a batter is slumping like mad or playing liked a Created Player from The Show.Â It reads like a batting average, so generally anything in the .280-.320 range is normal, but each batter is different.Â Ichiro is sustaining higher BABIPs because of his style, he hits anything within a square mile of the plate.Â But, if Adam Dunn has a BABIP of .360, that sucker is coming down.
So, what is Dan Uggla's BABIP?Â .234, about 50 points lower than I would think is sustainable for him.Â So, essentially, you can bet on Uggla bringing his average to about .290 or so, which will help his OBP, which will make him a far more valuable player than he is now, and more valuable than Burriss, who's BABIP is .300.Â Or, um, standard.Â He's not unlucky.Â Just awful.
So, Jon, um, do you still think a Uggla for Sanchez deal would be bad?
You tweeted, well, "that trade would be simply awful".Â
If you don't believe me, Heyman is at @SI_JonHeyman.