David Pinto quotes Rich Lederer and adds a though:
Rich Lederer notes that the teams with the better big name starters didn’t do so well in two of the three sweeps:
In the meantime, there is at least one lesson to be learned from the Division Championship Series. The teams with the best starting pitchers don’t necessarily win these things — even if they sport two Cy Young Award candidates (as St. Louis did with Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright) or two No. 1s (like Boston’s Jon Lester and Josh Beckett). Not only did the Cardinals and Red Sox lose their respective series, they didn’t win a single game. Zero. Zilch. Nada. None. Instead, it was three and done for both of these clubs.
Look, I’m as guilty as the next guy in perhaps paying more attention to the top two starters than other factors, including home field advantage. I mean, I picked the Redbirds and Sox to beat the Dodgers and Angels, respectively, in five games. In our NLDS roundtable, I wrote, “My heart and even my mind says Dodgers, but I’m a sucker for the top-heavy Pujols/Holliday/Carpenter/Wainwright fearsome foursome.” You might say I was overly enamored with the big names here. Shame on me.
There is no shame in those picks. In a short series, one hot hitter or a couple of hot pitchers can make a big difference. My bet would go on the superlative talent to get hot every time.
I'm not sure if this is true. I think I would rather pick the team with more talent spread throughout the roster. It increases the likelihood that someone steps up and has a huge series. s